Analyzing Bitcoin Price Trends Through URPD: Will the Bull Market Continue in 2025 or Will Bitcoin Return to a Bear Market?

12 min readMay 3, 2025

TL;DR:

Using URPD data, the article examines capital flows into Bitcoin, highlighting how accumulated positions at certain price levels signal potential support or resistance.
Key moments of price movement in 2024–2025 show that strong support around the $60K–$70K range helped Bitcoin rebound, while sell-offs at higher levels indicated resistance.
As of April 2025, Bitcoin’s price faces a critical juncture at $83K–$84K (resistance) and $94K–$95K (support). The market’s direction will depend on further movement in these zones.

Introduction

Bitcoin price has rebounded from around $74,000 in early April to approximately $94,000 as of April 29, 2025. This surge has sparked renewed speculation that the bull market may be back. In addition, during this rebound phase, Bitcoin’s price at times followed the trend of gold and at other times mirrored the movements of the U.S. stock market. This has led to ongoing debates about whether Bitcoin’s price is more closely tied to gold or to equities.

So, has Bitcoin officially re-entered a bull market? And is its price primarily influenced by gold or the stock market? In reality, such noise frequently arises in the market, often disrupting investor sentiment. Regardless of whether Bitcoin follows gold or equities, its price movements, as with any investment asset, are ultimately driven by a key factor: capital inflows and outflows. The levels at which funds are buying in or selling off play a more direct role in determining Bitcoin’s short-term price trends.

In traditional financial markets, it’s often difficult for investors to access this kind of data. Fortunately, in the Web3 world, the transparent nature of blockchain allows us to observe the flow of funds into and out of Bitcoin. This type of on-chain data is known as “URPD”. This article will analyze recent capital movements in Bitcoin using URPD data and attempt to assess its short-term price outlook.

What is URPD?

URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) refers to the distribution of realized prices for UTXOs (CoinEx Wallet, 2020). It clearly shows the price ranges at which the circulating BTC last moved (Glassnode Studio — On-Chain Market Intelligence, 2025). Simply put, it is a chart of on-chain BTC cost distribution.

How Does URPD Affect Bitcoin Prices?

URPD, as an on-chain data metric that shows the price distribution of held coins, differs from traditional candlestick chart technical analysis. In the past, if investors wanted to identify the support and resistance levels of an asset’s price, they typically had to rely solely on candlestick chart analysis. However, thanks to blockchain technology, investors can now directly observe the distribution of coin holdings at various price levels when investing in Bitcoin.

More specifically, the more holdings (or “coin supply”) that accumulate around a particular price level, the more capital is concentrated there — making it more likely to form a strong support or resistance level. These levels are built on actual capital and real purchases, making them fundamentally different from the support and resistance levels identified through traditional candlestick analysis.

As for how URPD specifically affects Bitcoin price trends, it can be broadly summarized into the following three aspects:

If there is a large concentration of supply ( or positions) around a certain price level, and the supply volume is high, it indicates that a consensus has been formed by capital at that price. Such a consensus, built up by a significant amount of capital, often forms a strong support or resistance level.
If there is no supply accumulation, it means there is no capital support, and naturally, there is no momentum for the price to break upward, nor any support to hold the price.
If supply accumulation is substantial, it means there is capital support, which can naturally provide upward momentum for the price or serve as price support.

Some readers may find the above statements unfamiliar and may not clearly perceive the tangible impact of URPD on Bitcoin’s price. Therefore, this article next will examine Bitcoin’s price movements during the 2024–2025 period and analyze how URPD, as an on-chain metric, has influenced BTC market trends over the past year.

Data Backtesting: How URPD Affected Bitcoin Price Trends in 2024–2025?

Note: The gray bar represents the price level at the time; the orange bars represent the amount of Bitcoin bought at those price levels, i.e., the distribution of holdings or supply.

March 1, 2024:

On March 1, 2024, Bitcoin was priced around $62K. Looking at the area above the $62K level — highlighted by the red box in the chart — we can see that there was virtually no significant supply of tokens. Meanwhile, a considerable amount of tokens had accumulated just below the $62K level, as indicated by the prominent token volume bars shown behind that price point in the chart.

In other words, there was little to no resistance from funds above the $62K level, while substantial support had built up below it. Under such circumstances, the buying support from below clearly outweighs any selling pressure from above, making it highly likely for Bitcoin’s price to continue rising.

March 13, 2024:

On March 13, 2024, as expected, Bitcoin continued to climb and eventually broke past its previous high, reaching around $72K. At this point, two noteworthy developments emerged.

First, on the left side of the chart within the red box, the volume of supply (i.e., holdings) around the $40K level had clearly declined compared to March 1. This indicates that funds which had bought Bitcoin at lower prices were beginning to sell off and exit the market.

Meanwhile, on the right side of the chart within the red box, a large volume of supply had accumulated around the $72K level. This suggests that investors were only willing to buy Bitcoin near $72K, showing reluctance to purchase at higher prices.

When combining these two observations, it becomes clear that the on-chain URPD data was signaling the following: low-price holders were selling and exiting, the capital that had previously driven Bitcoin’s price increase was fading, and although new buyers were stepping in at higher levels, they failed to push the price beyond $72K. This created strong resistance around $72K, making a price pullback increasingly likely.

July 25, 2024:

On July 25, 2024, as mentioned earlier, the price of Bitcoin experienced a pullback and then began to fluctuate around the $60K level. By the time we reached July 25, we could observe that capital and positions had started to accumulate heavily again in the $60K–$70K range (as shown in the red box in the chart above).

If this trend continues, it would suggest that capital is building momentum for a new round of price growth. However, at this very moment, an interesting twist occurred in the market.

August 5, 2024:

On August 5, 2024, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly announced an interest rate hike, which triggered a wave of position sell-offs by investors and institutions that had been relying on the yen for carry trades. This move sparked a moderate black swan event in the market. As a result, Bitcoin’s price dropped below $60K, briefly touching levels around $49K. Influenced by this event, many voices in the market began claiming that “the bull market is dead.”

Of course, we now know that the bull market did not end at that point. It was simply that market panic distorted the judgment of many investors. In fact, the URPD data at the time was already signaling that the bull market had not yet concluded.

During the Bitcoin price decline, when the price fell into the $53K–$56K range, a significant amount of capital began to buy the dip. This is reflected in the red box in the chart above, showing a noticeable increase in the volume of coins in this price range compared to July 25. In other words, although Bitcoin experienced a pullback, substantial capital flowed in to buy at the bottom, providing support for Bitcoin in the $53K–$56K zone. Since strong support was formed at the bottom, a further decline naturally became unlikely.

November 8, 2024:

On November 8, 2024, the supply distribution was almost identical to that of March 1. The price had rebounded to around $74k, and above that level, there was no longer any resistance from capital or supply, while a massive accumulation of capital had formed below. In this situation, a significant surge seems to be just around the corner.

November 11, 2024:

On November 11, 2024, Donald Trump has already been re-elected as the new President of the United States. With this bullish news, Bitcoin’s price has risen to around $88K. At this point, many investors believe that since Trump’s re-election is already confirmed, the bullish news has been “priced in” and may even turn into a bearish signal. They think Bitcoin’s price may have peaked in the short term.

But is that really the case? On-chain data, specifically URPD, tells a different story. As shown in the red box in the chart above, we can see that due to the rapid price increase, there hasn’t been much accumulation of supply in the $75K–$86K range — meaning many investors didn’t have time to buy in before Bitcoin quickly broke through this level. This indicates there is still little capital resistance above the current price. Additionally, the earlier accumulation range of $60K–$70K, which helped drive the price up, hasn’t shown signs of selling either.

In short, with previous buyers not selling and no clear resistance above, Bitcoin’s price is very likely to continue breaking upward.

December 4, 2024:

On December 4, 2024, two noteworthy developments emerged.

On one hand, as shown in the red box on the right side of the chart, there has been a noticeable accumulation of capital and supply. It’s important to monitor whether this trend will continue. On the other hand, in the red box on the left side of the chart, the holdings in the $60k to $70k range have started to decline slightly. However, the drop is not significant enough to trigger a major sell-off. Still, if these positions continue to shrink in the future, Bitcoin may lose its upward momentum.

December 16, 2024:

On December 16, 2024, the amount of holdings in the $60k–$70k range began to decrease significantly (as shown in the red box in the chart above). This is clearly not a good sign for a price increase, so we should start to be somewhat cautious at this point.

February 19, 2025:

On February 19, 2025, the price of Bitcoin pulled back to around $96,000. At the red box on the left side of the chart above, it can be seen that the previously accumulated holdings in the $60k to $70k range continue to decrease, indicating that selling pressure is still ongoing. Meanwhile, in the red box on the right side of the chart, there are extremely few holdings in the $70k to $87k range. Therefore, if the price pulls back in the future, there is virtually no capital support in this range, making it highly susceptible to a sharp decline within a short period.

February 24, 2025:

On February 24, 2025, the price had pulled back to around $92K, with no support from any remaining holdings below that level (as shown in the red box above). At this point, a short-term price crash was almost inevitable.

April 17, 2025

On April 17, 2025, over the past month or so, the price of Bitcoin dropped to a low of around $74K before starting to fluctuate near the $80K level. At this point, as shown in the red box in the chart above, we can observe a large amount of accumulated holdings occurring again around the $83K and $84K levels. This seems to suggest that a short-term price rebound may be on the horizon.

April 29, 2025:

On April 29, 2025, bitcoin price is currently at a critical juncture.

On one hand, the red box on the left side of the chart shows that there is selling pressure around the $83k–$84k price range. On the other hand, a significant amount of capital is still willing to buy in around the $94k–$95k level, which has allowed Bitcoin to even break through the $93k resistance level (as indicated by the large volume of holdings at that price).

So, how might Bitcoin’s price evolve next? It will depend on further observations of the two key price ranges: $83k–$84k and $94k–$95k. If more selling occurs near $83k–$84k, and buyers are no longer willing to enter at levels above $95k, then Bitcoin’s price may have peaked in the short term, potentially triggering a pullback.

However, if there’s no further sell-off around $83k–$84k — or even if selling continues but is matched by strong demand at higher levels — and buyers are willing to take positions above the $94k–$95k range, then the price may continue to rise. If this leads to a significant build-up of holdings between $93k and $97k, Bitcoin could gain renewed momentum for an upward breakout.

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The Summary of URPD Characteristics:

Finally, let’s summarize the characteristics of URPD data.

During a consolidation or oscillation phase, when the URPD shows accumulation of positions within a certain price range, it often indicates that capital is building up to drive an upward breakout.
After the price breaks upward, the URPD positions in the lower price range begin to decrease, while positions in the higher price range begin to accumulate, which often signals that the price may reach a short-term peak. This is because positions in the lower price range are being swapped for those in the higher price range, meaning investors in the lower price range are cashing out.
If a large accumulation of positions occurs at the top during the upward breakout, it often means that the upward momentum is losing strength and cannot break through that price level. Investors are unwilling to buy at higher prices, so the growth momentum may come to a halt.
If the price quickly breaks through to a new high, but there is no effective accumulation of positions in the new high range, it suggests that Bitcoin’s price may continue to break upward. However, once a pullback occurs, the support at this price level is likely to be weak.
If the price declines and starts to accumulate positions near a certain price level, it often indicates that a bottom is forming.

References:

CoinEx Wallet. (2020). Coinex.com. https://wallet.coinex.com/en/blog/%E3%80%90Blockchain-Know-how%E3%80%91All-Bitcoins-Are-Really-UTXOs-28
Glassnode Studio — On-Chain Market Intelligence. (2025). Glassnode.com. https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/indicators.UtxoRealizedPriceDistributionAth?a=BTC&zoom=all

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