CoinEx: Bitcoin Futures ETF Gets Approved. How Long Will It Take the Bitcoin Spot ETF?

On October 15, 2021, the market got thrilled by the news that the Bitcoin futures ETF was approved by the SEC for the first time.

In fact, as early as the beginning of October, two Bloomberg analysts @James Seyffart and @Eric Balchunas shared many of their speculations on Twitter. They thought there was a 75% chance that the Bitcoin futures ETF would be approved in October by the SEC and provided a list of five ETFs likely to get approved first.

What’s more, as Bloomberg predicted with detailed reasons elaborated, to avoid giving a single ETF a first-mover advantage, the US SEC would also approve multiple Bitcoin futures ETFs at the same time. Nobody took it seriously until October 15 when the media reported that ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was officially approved by the SEC, which immediately ignited the market sentiment.

Later on October 22, Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BTF) was also approved by the SEC for listing. Bloomberg’s forecast turns out to be accurate. Although what the SEC approved were Bitcoin futures ETFs, the market has been in high spirits, sending Bitcoin skyrocketing from the lowest point of $41,000-plus at the end of September to the historical peak at $67010.59 (October 20, QKL123 data), a staggering 60%-plus within 20 days.

Those who paid attention to such information must have seized the bull run.

What makes the market so excited?

After the past eight years full of setbacks in the road towards Nasdaq, the first-ever approval has opened Bitcoin to wider investor base. The market is generally optimistic that Bitcoin spot ETFs will be the next to get the SEC approval. Once the state regulator looses its grip on cryptocurrency, mass private capital will flow into the crypto industry, and those early investors will see their wealth soar. Isn’t it thrilling?

Yet still, how long will it take Bitcoin spot ETFs to be approved?

Pay attention to this November and December. This September, the SEC postponed the approval of five Bitcoin funds, i.e. VanEck Bitcoin Trust, Global X Bitcoin Trust, Valkyrie XBTO Bitcoin Trust, WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust, and Kryptoin Bitcoin ETF, to November 14, November 21, December 8, December 11, and December 24, respectively.

Although most of these funds are trusts (only one Bitcoin spot ETF in the case of Kryptoin and still one futures ETF in the case of Valkyrie), they hold spot Bitcoins. Once approved, they will attract a large amount of funds to the market. So these time points could be very important.

In addition, the approval of the Bitcoin futures ETF has ignited the market, as evidenced by several Bitcoin trust funds applying to be transformed into Bitcoin spot ETFs. On October 19, Grayscale, the world’s largest crypto investment institution, announced on its official Twitter:

It has applied with the SEC to transform its GBTC into Bitcoin ETF; and on October 21, Osprey Funds also announced on its official website the transformation of its OBTC into Bitcoin ETF.

Despite the public reservations about the SEC’s fast approval, many Bitcoin spot ETFs emerge around the world, say, Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC), Evolve Bitcoin ETF (EBIT, EBIT.U), and CI Galaxy Bitcoin ETF approved by Canada in this February and March, QR Capital Bitcoin ETF (QBTC11) approved by Brazil (also another multi-crypto ETF coded HASH11), 3iQ CoinShares Bitcoin ETF (QBTC) officially listed on Nasdaq Dubai this June, etc. Amid such a market boom, ProShares Bitcoin futures ETF (BITO) raked in a turnover of more than $1 billion within less than two days.

No wonder the market has been eagerly looking to the US SEC’s approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF.

Under such market sentiment, the stock of Bitcoin on exchanges has almost hit a record low (CryptoQuant-BTC: All Exchanges Reserve data) as most Bitcoin holders tend to hold the coins instead of selling them right away. It’s just a matter of time before Bitcoin spot ETFs get approved, and it’s sensible to hold your coins and wait for the time.

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